New Census Data Analysis Reveals Impact of the Latino Vote in Key States
August 17, 2005
Latino voters in electoral vote-rich states such as Texas, Florida and California can make a statewide electoral vote outcome difference if as few as 3-4% of Latino voters switch parties or change their candidate preferences, according to an analysis of recently-released Census data on the 2004 election, conducted by the Tomás Rivera Policy Institute (TRPI) at the University of Southern California.
Percent of Latino vote
[1] needed to make a 1% shift in statewide elections for top 10 Latino states in 2004
States
Electoral Votes
Total Number of Voters (in thousands)
% Margin of Error (Total Voters)
Total Number of Latino Voters (in thousands)
% Margin of Error
(Total Latino Voters) [2]
% of Latino voters needed for a 1% shift [3]
Arizona 10 2,239 2.3 296 6.1 3.8 California 55 12,807 1.1 2,081 2.6 3.1 Colorado 9 2,097 1.9 165 6.9 6.4 Florida 27 7,372 1.3 824 4.6 4.5 Illinois 21 5,672 1.5 294 6.5 9.6 New Jersey 15 3,693 1.7 277 6.5 6.7 New Mexico 5 837 2.5 276 6.4 1.5 New York 31 7,698 1.2 613 4.6 6.3 Texas 34 7,950 1.3 1,533 3.3 2.6 Washington 11 2,851 2.1 44 11.3 *
*Margin of error over 10%
"This information should be particularly significant to both Democratic and Republican party office holders running for statewide offices," stated Harry P. Pachon, Ph.D., TRPI President and Professor of Public Policy at the University of Southern California. "If President Bush was able to garner forty-plus percent of the Latino vote in 2004, while Senator Dole was only able to secure Latino voter support in the low-20 percent range, this represents a six point swing in overall election results in states like California or Texas, and even in smaller states such as New Mexico."
Previous TRPI research has revealed that the growth of the Latino vote in recent years has come about as a result of two factors: young Latinos coming of voting age and newly-naturalized immigrants.
About the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute
Founded in 1985, the Tomás Rivera Policy Institute (TRPI) advances critical, insightful thinking on key issues affecting Latino communities through objective, policy-relevant research, and its implications, for the betterment of the nation. TRPI is an affiliated research unit of the University of Southern California School of Policy, Planning, and Development, and is associated with the Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University.
To learn more about the Tomás Rivera Policy Institute, go to http://www.trpi.org.