Cuba After Fidel

February 22, 2008

USC faculty posit a range of viewpoints on Cuba’s past, present and future, and the implications for both countries.

Will Fidel Castro’s Influence Wane?

Manuel Pastor, an expert in economic reform in Cuba, believes that with Fidel Castro’s retirement and the upcoming change in administration in Washington, there is a possibility for a new era of relations between Cuba and the United States. It remains unclear whether the island nation will embrace a free market with Fidel still yielding influence. “While Fidel Castro is stepping down from his official governmental role, he may exercise an important veto on new policy innovations,” Pastor says.

Time for the U.S. To Change Schizophrenic Policy Toward Cuba

Edwin M. Smith, an international law expert, believes that the transition will stop the United States’ “schizophrenic policy towards Cuba.” “The devastating economic sanctions were perceived by most as counterproductive, except for an intense and politically connected minority,” Smith says. Now it’s possible that Raúl Castro will make different choices and that the normalization of relations can proceed, just as it has with Vietnam, Smith says.

The U.S. Must Treat Each Country in Latin America Individually

Abraham Lowenthal, an international relations professor who teaches a course titled “The United States and Cuba: Beyond the Era of Fidel Castro,” is an expert on U.S. foreign policy in Latin America and the Caribbean. He believes:

• The “turn to the left” in Latin America is overrated, and the president should reject the view that U.S.-Latin American relations have drastically deteriorated.
• The United States’ limited attention to the region should be focused to be effective.
• Policies that ignore the diversity of the region are bound to fail.
  

Cuba Will Use China as a Blueprint for Change

G. Alexander Moore is a social anthropologist who teaches a course on dictators. He thinks that Raúl Castro has set himself and his family to rule over Cuba in the same fashion as the communists have in China. Family influence and close allies are spread all over the country, including in the Cuban assembly, military and tourist industry. In another China parallel, Moore expects that Raúl Castro will make Cuba more open to the free market and that the family will gain even more wealth with its oligarchy. Ultimately, Moore believes that Cuba and its influence is extremely marginal.

Communism Will Continue, But for How Long?

Clara Irazábal, a professor in the USC School of Policy, Planning, and Development, believes that “the people in power in Cuba and a significant portion of the population will want communism to continue” even after Castro’s death. But she isn’t sure that will translate into a stable government.