A Tale of Two Elections: Russia and America
February 29, 2008
The next U.S. president will inherit a strained relationship with Russia, despite the likely election of Dmitry Medvedev, a forward-looking candidate who understands the importance of good relationships with the West, says Robert English, professor of international relations in the USC College of Letters, Arts and Sciences.
U.S. Presidential Candidates’ Comments Rankle in Russia
English believes that there is a temptation among U.S. presidential candidates to appear tough on Russia. “The pattern in presidential politics has been that Russia presents an obvious target,” he says.
He adds that “gentlemanly relationships” with Russia haven’t been maintained by the Bush administration, so “little snips and untoward comments resonate.” For example, John McCain’s needlessly offensive comments — including repeated calls to oust Russia from the G-8 — rankle in Russia, English says.
English draws contrasts with the Nixon administration, which used backdoor diplomacy to ensure that comments made publicly for political reasons didn’t affect diplomatic relations with Russia.
“Russians are prickly towards the United States. They are angry our candidates kick Russia around,” English says. He suggests that in order to improve relationships with Russia, the next president might consider such conciliatory gestures as shelving the planned missile defense program in Central Asia, or calling a conference between the U.S. and Russia to revisit Middle East policy.
“If something obnoxious is said [by an American politician], the state-run government might not make a case of it, but the nationalist and anti-American press will pick it up and run with it,” English says.
According to English, U.S. presidential campaign rhetoric regarding Russia will largely address the erosion of democratic freedoms in Russia, and Russia’s assertiveness in muscling around weaker countries, largely through the use of oil.
Russian Presidential Election: Medvedev Is the Best Option
English believes that likely president-elect of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, is the best option, given Medvedev’s experience negotiating with the West and his interest in reintroducing democracy to Russia. However, like many other members of Putin’s inner circle, Medvedev sees the country as needing a long authoritarian period before any changes are made, according to English.
He explains: “The pendulum has swung too far back in the other direction, but it is impossible to understand the heavy-handedness and paranoia of Putin’s people — even when the polls say they will win — without understanding his experience and Russia in the ’90s.”
In the Russian presidential election on March 2, polls show Medvedev, Putin’s handpicked successor, winning handily with upwards of 70 percent of the vote. There has been criticism of tactics used against opposition candidates, but English says Medvedev would be the overwhelming favorite even without campaign manipulation.
English believes that the backlash against too-hasty economic reforms in the ’90s, coupled with despair that the country was literally falling apart, led to a willingness to “trade away democratic freedoms for long-term economic stability.”
“Russians have access to a wider diversity of news sources — for example, the Internet, as Medvedev mentioned. But then the question becomes, what kind of brutalization and poverty did they go through to make them blind supporters of this regime?” English says. “We forget everything that happened in the region and that we did in the region, but Russians have long memories.”
An expert on Russian politics, Robert English is a former policy analyst for the U.S. Department of Defense and the Committee for National Security. He is currently working on a volume about Russia’s relationships with the former Yugoslavian states.