Gay Marriage
Ripples

May 23, 2008

When the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court legalized gay marriage in 2003, it triggered backlash propositions that many credit with driving conservatives to the polls and helping elect George W. Bush in 2004.

Here it is, another election year, and another state has ruled in favor of gay marriage. Will the California Supreme Court’s decision cause history to repeat, inspiring ballot measures that will boost John McCain’s chances?

That scenario is unlikely, according to Larry Gross of the USC Annenberg School. “I doubt if the decision will have a large effect on the California race, as those most invested in denying gays the right to marry are not natural supporters of John McCain,” Gross says. “If McCain tries to use this issue to garner support among the religious right — not inconceivable given his recent behavior — he risks alienating the independent voters he’ll want to take away from Obama.

“I don't see this as playing as big a role in California as it seems to have played in more conservative states in 2004,” Gross adds. “The tenor of this issue has changed in the past few years, especially after Massachusetts, and it’s quite likely that the predictable referendum will fail.”

“If voting against gay marriage got conservative voters to the polls in 2004 — the presumed ‘Karl Rove strategy’ — this year it may be that the new, especially younger voters attracted by the Obama phenomenon will help increase the pro-gay marriage vote,” Gross concludes.

Larry Gross, director of the School of Communication at the USC Annenberg School for Communication, is an expert on gay studies and politics, as well as media policies and culture.
Contact him at (213) 740-3770 (office), (310) 913-3059 (cell) or larry.gross@usc.edu.