Obama’s Best Choice for VP? Not Clinton

June 6, 2008

By Patrick James

Now that Barack Obama stands victorious on the Democratic field, he has two clear problems: Who to choose as his running mate? And what to do about disappointed Hillary Clinton supporters?

Ideally, Obama should have asked Clinton to be his VP a few weeks ago, while the race was still heated… precisely so she would say “no.” He could then have moved on to his best choice for nominee, identified below, who can give him virtually all of Clinton’s advantages and none of her baggage.

Had Obama struck early, before Clinton signaled that she would accept the second slot, he could have side-stepped the increasing pressure for him to ask her to be his running mate. Had he reached out to Clinton and been rebuffed, Clinton supporters would have been more likely to climb on board and support him when he chose someone else. Obama would have been in a perfect position to quickly move on, with minimum collateral damage.

Now, Obama has to avoid Clinton at all costs. The Clinton name on a Democratic ticket could help John McCain mobilize his party’s conservative base. For many moderate Republicans and independents, Obama is a guilty pleasure, in spite of his liberal views. He is a charismatic figure and at least talks the talk of unifying the country. It would be easy for center-leaning voters to rationalize Obama’s other rhetoric and come to believe that he would pursue moderate policies to follow through on his goal of bringing people together. In short, McCain is vulnerable to Obama… but he might not be if Clinton were second in line.

One might ask: What about those white working-class voters who Hillary Clinton claimed — clumsily but accurately — are more fond of her than of Obama? Doesn’t he need her to get their crucial support, to avoid the fate of other Democratic nominees who failed to do well enough in the general election among so-called “Reagan Democrats”?

In fact, he doesn’t. Sen. Evan Bayh from Indiana can give him all of that and more. Bayh, the self-proclaimed champion of “hardworking Hoosiers,” is extremely popular among working-class whites and is framed by virtually all of the media as a centrist. This would help Obama with lower-income whites and moderates from the get-go. Bayh’s presence on the ticket could also aid the healing process within the Democratic Party, since he supported Clinton all the way. Bayh’s pragmatic nature makes him an ideal running mate — as the elder Bush was for Reagan — in that he can adapt himself to the top of the ticket. This would be true if Bayh ran with virtually any Democratic candidate, and this capacity isn’t compromised by Obama’s left-of-center views.

Furthermore, Evan Bayh is Evan Bayh… not a Clinton. Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and others will have to struggle mightily to ignite the base against an Obama/Bayh ticket.

With a problematic economy, a five-year-old war and credentials as a conservative that are open to question, McCain faces a stiff challenge against Obama/Bayh if that ticket materializes. Obama doesn’t need Clinton — if he plays his cards right.

Patrick James is professor of International Relations in the USC College and director of USC’s Center for International Studies. He is an expert on crisis management and strategic decision-making. James is the author of 12 books and more than one hundred other publications. He has lectured and held visiting professorships at universities in the United States and around the world.